Professors Discuss the Sleeping Dragon’s Next Step
The Center for International Studies, on November 14, held a debate attempting to answer the question, “Is China the new superpower?” David Lampton of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Aaron Friedberg of Princeton University critically debated China’s prospects as the new global power. China’s decade of economic expansion, with the second largest GDP in the world, might lead one to believe that China is in fact the next United States. However, these keynote speakers put both China’s recent advances, and problems, in a more global perspective.
The mediator, our own Professor Allen Carlson, asked three major questions: (1) Is China the next superpower? (2) What is China’s global impact? And (3) how should the United States respond? While this was supposed to be a vehement debate over China’s current and future global power, both speakers had relatively similar answers: not yet.
Despite all of China’s economic gains, China has yet to gain the substantial authority a well-defined superpower maintains, such as military strength, established soft power, and a stable government. The economy, though a critically important aspect of a nation’s power, is not solely what makes a superpower dominant. For example, according to the speakers, China has claimed no real desire for global influence other than to maintain healthy trade. China’s military spending still remains between two and three percent of its GDP, which is significantly lower than that of the United States.
As such, China’s only substantial increase in power is derived from its continued economic growth. However, according to Communist officials, the economy must continue to grow at a rate of at least 7% each year to maintain a prosperous and stable nation. While China has been successful thus far, this is a very difficult goal that, if failed to meet, could challenge the political order of the Chinese nation. Therefore, according to the speakers, China’s growth in power comes with substantial obstacles.
Where Professor Lampton and Professor Friedberg differed was their overall opinion on China in regards to American foreign policy. Professor Lampton argued for patience because of China’s accomplishments. Forty years ago, China was a completely controlled economy under radical Communist rule. Now, China is described as “capitalism with Chinese characteristics.” China enjoys not only a substantially more free market economy, but also more political freedoms compared to Maoist China. These advances in economic wealth and general freedom have, according to Lampton, provided hope for a more politically friendly future for China.
Professor Friedberg, on the other hand, argued for a more balanced approach to China. According to Friedberg, China has become much more capitalistic and progressive, but America must maintain a balance between power politics and economic placidity. China is not a democratic nation, and thus America must maintain global dominance in the face of Chinese aggressions. But this must not destroy the United States’ and China’s intertwined economies.
China is no doubt a rising player on the global stage. With a quarter of the world’s population, and a skyrocketing economy, China certainly has promise. But its government is also faced with major obstacles. A growing economy and an increase in middle class citizens has put substantial pressure on the Communist government to reform, and economic inequalities threaten to divide the nation. It is difficult to be both communist and capitalist, and only the future will determine if China really is the next superpower.
Bill Snyder is a freshman in the College of Arts & Sciences. He can be reached at wjs254@cornell.edu.